The summer is here, meaning we're getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Allen Robinson recorded 102 catches on 151 targets for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns. That was all good enough for him to finish ninth in fantasy points among wide receivers, and it was his second straight year in the top 10. As a result, fantasy managers felt good about drafting Robinson as a low-end No. 1 wideout in 2021 drafts. In fact, he had an ADP of 32.7, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Unfortunately, the veteran wideout experienced a massive decline in his fantasy totals. In fact, his catches, yardage and touchdown numbers were his worst since his rookie season. Who knew he would miss Mitchell Trubisky so much or that the selection of rookie Justin Fields would be for Robinson’s stock?
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Robinson was so good in the two previous seasons. The proof, of course, is in his high-end ADP number. That leads me to this series, aptly named "The Fantasy Case Against…" where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I'll look a Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown | Antonio Gibson | Patrick Mahomes | Mark Andrews
2021 season
Last season, Hill was a fantasy superstar, posting over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. That was good enough to finish sixth in fantasy points among wide receivers. He did experience a decline in his fantasy points per game average, dropping from 21.9 points (2020) to 17.4. Hill was also far less consistent on a week-to-week basis, as he failed to score 13 fantasy points in eight of his 16 full games played. On a positive note, when Hill was good, he was . He scored over 20 fantasy points seven times, including three games where he scored more than 30 fantasy points.
Did you know?
Since 2017, Hill has scored a combined 1,392.9 fantasy points. That is the second most points scored among wide receivers in PPR leagues in that time. Only Davante Adams has scored more points (1467.5) at the position over the last five years. Hill also ranks third in targets, is tied for fourth in receptions, and ranks second in receiving yards and touchdowns. He also ranks first in pass plays of 20-plus yards (103) during that time.
Historical trends
Hill scored 296.5 or more PPR fantasy points in his last three full seasons (minimum 15 games). During that time, he averaged a stout 319.8 fantasy points. Now in Miami, after a blockbuster trade, Hill joins a Dolphins franchise that hasn’t had nearly as much success among wide receivers. Just one receiver has scored more than 300 fantasy points in a single season. That came in 1984 when Mark Clayton scored 319.4 points. Clayton also scored 283.3 points in 1988, but no other Dolphins wide receiver has scored more than 275.4 fantasy points in a single season in the Super Bowl era.
Furthermore, no other Miami wideout besides Jarvis Landry (2015, 2017) and Chris Chambers (2005) has scored more than 250 points since 2000. That can be blamed, in part, on the fact that the Dolphins haven't had what you would call great quarterbacks in that time. Their best fantasy field generals have been Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jay Fiedler. Those are good quarterbacks, but not Dan Marino’s level.
Coaching & personnel changes
Hill will be in a different system in Miami, led by new head coach and offensive mind Mike McDaniel. While he has served as an offensive assistant, wide receivers coach and run-game coordinator in the NFL, McDaniel has just one season of experience as an offensive coordinator. What’s more, coach Kyle Shanahan was the main play caller. McDaniel will have Frank Smith as his new offensive coordinator with the Dolphins, but Smith has no experience in that role at the NFL level. He's been a tight ends coach, a run game coordinator, and an offensive line coach during his tenure in the pros.
Being on a new team, Hill will have a completely different cast of characters around him. That includes Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering his third season in the NFL. The Alabama product has had mixed results in his 23 pro games and still has much to prove as an effective signal-caller. Hill will also have far more competition for targets in Miami with Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson and Mike Gesicki in the offense.
Verdict
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The trade that sent Hill to Miami was the worst deal of the offseason from a fantasy football perspective. Nothing about the move will benefit the superstar wide receiver except for expanding his bank account. Hill will experience an obvious downgrade in coaching and at quarterback, and he’ll face a much tougher schedule playing against the Bills and Patriots twice within the AFC East.
Hill has long been one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football, and I still expect him to produce good totals with the Dolphins. However, I don’t see him producing at the same level as he did in Kansas City. Why? Hill had little competition for targets among wideouts with his former team. In fact, no other Chiefs receiver had more than a 16.1% target share in a single season since 2017. That was Sammy Watkins (2019). That was also the season Hill played in just 12 games, so even that percentage is deceiving. Beyond Watkins, Mecole Hardman’s 13% share is the highest since 2017.
In Miami, Hill joins a team that saw Waddle post a 23.4% share in 2021. Gesicki had an 18.7% share, which ranked fifth among tight ends. The Dolphins also signed Wilson during the offseason, not to mention three running backs, including two in Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, who can contribute as pass catchers in the offense.
Hill will have far more competition for targets in South Beach. And the targets he receives will not come from Mahomes but Tagovailoa. Hill can pump up his new quarterback all he wants, but the downgrade is obvious. As I mentioned earlier, no wide receiver in the league has had more big plays than Hill since 2017. Part of that success came because Mahomes has such a big and accurate right arm.
Since 2018, Mahomes has ranked second behind Tom Brady in big plays through the air (20-plus yards). However, he leads all quarterbacks in explosive pass plays (16-plus yards) and is fourth in pass attempts of 20-plus air yards per game in that time. Last season, Mahomes ranked tied for eighth with 85 explosive pass plays.
By comparison, Tagovailoa ranked 28th with just 49 explosive plays and was tied for 28th in big pass plays (30) in 2021. He did play in four fewer games than Mahomes, but his per-game average in both categories was still lower. Whether or not Tua can get the football downfield on an accurate and consistent basis will ultimately help to determine how much value Hill will (or won’t) lose from a fantasy perspective.
A reasonable projection for the Cheetah is 70-80 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards and in the neighborhood of eight to 10 touchdowns. And to be honest, some of those totals might be on the higher end. Heck, I can see a scenario where Waddle leads the Dolphins in targets and catches. The thought of another wideout usurping Hill in those categories in Kansas City would have been absurd. It’s not so absurd with his new team, however.
Hill's value has already started to fall, with an average draft position of between 21.8-22.4 on Fantasy Football Calculator and NFFC. He was coming off the board a full 10 picks earlier at this time last season. His numbers are almost destined to decline, so don’t fall in love with the name and instead think of the new situation and consider him a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy wideout whose ceiling has taken a legitimate hit.
More fantasy & NFL coverage:
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