While we’re still in the early stages of the season, so much has changed already. Two teams have already fired their managers. The Baltimore Orioles have the worst run differential in the American League. The Seattle Mariners suddenly have one of baseball’s best offenses. And the Colorado Rockies are on pace for (yes, you read that right).
Entering play Friday, all 30 clubs have played at least 42 games, meaning we’ve officially reached the end of the first quarter of the 2025 campaign. While we’ve still got a ways to go, it felt like the right time to check in on the major awards races and hand out some quarter pole accolades.
Some of the picks were pretty clear cut (you should check out this Aaron Judge guy, he’s pretty good). Others had a long list of deserving candidates that made picking just one at this point of the season a difficult task. And while the pecking order will undoubtedly change as spring turns to summer, it’s worthwhile to see where things stand from an individual perspective now.
So, without further ado, the envelopes, please:
American LeagueMVP: Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
At this point, Judge’s mastery of hitting is well documented. Through the Yankees’ first 43 games, he’s on pace to: clear 50 homers for the third time in four years; reach the 150-mark in runs scored and driven in; and record 256 hits. He’s hitting over .400, has the lowest strikeout rate (21.5%) of his career and is putting up the highest single-season slugging percentage (.782) of the 21st century for anyone not named Barry Bonds. His 252 wRC+ would be the best for a full season in MLB history.
Can Judge keep up this historic pace? History and math tell us it’s unlikely, but the run Judge has been on these past four years give us little reason to doubt that, by season’s end, there will be no debating who baseball’s best hitter is.
Honorable mention: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals; Cal Raleigh, Mariners; Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
Cy Young Award: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Now we get to the competitive races. The American League has seen several established aces get off to hot starts, but Brown has the slightest of edges so far. The 26-year-old has continued his stellar form over the second half of last season into 2025, and looks to be in the midst of a full-blown breakout.
Brown, a former top prospect, had an up-and-down rookie campaign in 2023 that portended brighter days in ‘24. That didn’t happen right away: through his first 10 games in ‘24 (nine starts), Brown was 1–5 with a 7.06 ERA and 24 walks in 44 ⅓ innings, briefly losing his spot in the rotation. From that point on, he was dominant, leading the AL with 2.27 ERA in 21 starts from May 28 through the end of the season.
The righthander has been a workhorse to begin 2025, ranking third in the AL in ERA (1.48) and first in FIP (1.85). He’s putting up a career-best 32% strikeout rate and his lowest walk rate (7.7%), allowing him to pitch deep into games: he’s gone at least six innings in seven of eight starts. The competition here is stiff, but Brown’s ability to log bulk innings, miss bats and prevent hard contact gives him the edge.
Honorable mention: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers; Max Fried, Yankees; Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers; Garrett Crochet, Red Sox; Kris Bubic, Royals
Rookie of the Year: Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
The A’s took Wilson with the sixth pick in the 2023 draft, then saw him hit .401 in 79 minor league games before making him the team’s starting shortstop. He kept his head above water in a 28-game cup of coffee in ‘24, but has been terrorizing opposing pitchers to begin ‘25.
Wilson doesn’t hit the ball hard and he doesn’t walk much, but he possesses Luis Arraez-like bat-to-ball skills that give him the league’s second-lowest strikeout rate at 5.4% (fittingly, trailing only Arraez). His ability to square the ball up despite lacking high exit velocities suppresses his power potential, but also allows him to have the league’s 10th-highest expected batting average (.319). The shortstop version of prime Luis Arraez at age 23 is a great foundational piece for an A’s team that’s managed to hover above .500 to this point.
Honorable mention: Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox; Kristian Campbell, Red Sox; Trey Sweeney, Tigers; Jasson Dominguez, Yankees; Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles
After years wandering the proverbial baseball wilderness, who could have believed that Báez had a stretch like this still in him? Through his first three years with the Tigers (2022 to ‘24), Báez had the second-lowest on-base percentage (.262) and fourth-worst wRC+ (70) of any hitter with at least 1,000 plate appearances. His six-year, $140 million contract was looking like a complete sunk cost, but the 32-year-old has found a renewed rhythm while rediscovering his role for a first-place Detroit squad that’s equipped to be a contender.
Báez has adapted remarkably quickly to playing center field, tying for fifth at the position in defensive runs saved. His .309/.346/.496 slash line isn’t exactly propped up by robust under-the-hood numbers, but anyone focusing on that aspect of his performance to date is missing the point. This is a player who, in his prime, was among the most fun and exciting to watch on a nightly basis. Having Báez back among MLB’s relevant characters on a winning team is good for everybody.
Honorable mention: Liam Hendriks, Red Sox; Tyler Mahle, Rangers
National LeagueMVP: Corbin Carroll, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks
As you can tell by the numerous honorable mentions, this is perhaps the most crowded field of the major awards. Carroll gets the pick now because we have to pick , but that’s not to say he hasn’t earned it.
The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year struggled during the first half of last season, posting a .619 OPS through the end of June. He was still hitting the ball hard, but not lifting it in the air enough to take advantage of his natural power. From Opening Day through June 30, Carroll had a 45.5% ground ball rate, translating to just two homers in 82 games.
Now, Carroll has fully embraced the pulled fly ball approach. He’s hitting the ball in the air 42.5% of the time this season, and pulling fly balls at a 28.1% clip—both career highs. As a result, he has the NL’s third-highest slugging percentage (.612) while ranking second among right fielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Carroll will need to fend off a swarm of players who are more than qualified to contend for the hardware, but he has a leg up on the rest of the crowd for now.
Honorable mention: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers; Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres; Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs; Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies; Pete Alonso, New York Mets; Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks, Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Cy Young Award: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
I think it’s a bridge slightly too far to call Wheeler underrated, but it’s hard to believe the veteran ace only has two All-Star appearances to his name. Since joining the Phillies in 2020, he leads all pitchers in fWAR (26.2), has the third-lowest ERA (2.96) among pitchers with at least 100 starts and has logged the second-most innings (887 1/3). He has two Cy Young runner-up finishes in that span, and 2025 is looking like it could be the year he finally secures the honor.
Wheeler leads the NL in innings (58), is third in strikeout rate (33.2%), second in K-BB% (28.3%), fifth in batting average against (.200) and second in WHIP (0.91). There are plenty of other pitchers who have similarly impressive stat lines, but this is a pick that’s partly betting on Wheeler’s consistency and durability giving him a better chance at maintaining this form over the next four months.
Honorable mention: Jesús Luzardo, Phillies; Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants; Michael King, Padres; Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds; Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers; Kodai Senga, Mets; Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Smith-Shawver got a brief taste of life in the big leagues in 2023 and ‘24 before cracking Atlanta’s Opening Day roster this season. His start to the year was uneven: he struck out 17 hitters over his first three outings but walked eight and twice failed to make it through the fifth inning. Opposing hitters put up a .333/.415/.526 slash line against him, leading to his demotion back to Triple A.
In four starts since getting recalled, Smith-Shawver has looked like a new pitcher. He’s 3–0 and allowed just three earned runs during that stretch, with 23 strikeouts and nine walks in 25 frames. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in all four games, and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his May 5 outing against the Reds. Smith-Shawver’s emergence into a reliable starter, along with the presence of Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach and impending return of Spencer Strider, could once again give Atlanta a strong front-end of the rotation—and net the 22-year-old some serious hardware, too.
Honorable mention: Drake Baldwin, Braves; Luisangel Acuña, Mets; Agustîn Ramírez, Miami Marlins; Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers; Ben Casparius, Dodgers; Tim Tawa, Diamondbacks
Comeback Player of the Year: Jesús Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Health has always been a concern for Luzardo. He had Tommy John surgery in high school before the Washington Nationals took him in the third round of the 2016 draft, and has spent much of his career on and off the injured list. When he’s been able to stay on the mound, though, there’s been little doubting his ability, and he put everything together for a breakout 2023 campaign for the Marlins in which he posted a 3.58 ERA with 208 strikeouts in 32 starts.
Last season, though, was another in which Luzardo couldn’t stay healthy. A lumbar stress reaction ended his season in mid-June after 12 underwhelming starts in which he put up a 5.00 ERA. Miami dealt him in December to Philadelphia, where he's enjoyed a resurgence and is now pitching better than ever. Luzardo is 4–0 with a 2.00 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts, pitching into the sixth inning in eight of them. Durability will always be a concern, but if he can stay on the mound, he’ll be in contention for a lot more than just Comeback Player of the Year by season’s end.
Honorable mention: Jung Hoo Lee, Giants; Kodai Senga, Mets; Robbie Ray, Giants
