Sometimes it’s better to not get too cute when it comes to survivor pools.
With heavy favorites handling business in Week 1, only about 500 entries were eliminated from the Circa’s popular survivor contest, which generated a record-setting $18.7 million pool prize from the 18,718 sign-ups.
For those who favored strategy over surviving, it’s hard to blame them because of what has transpired in recent opening weeks. In four of the first six years of the downtown Las Vegas casino hosting the survivor contest, the No. 1 picked team lost in Week 1.
Chaos didn’t occur this year, however, with the Broncos and Cardinals improving to 1–0, the top two teams picked in the Circa survivor contest last week.
“That’s a good thing,” says Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa. “We don’t want people to get eliminated right away and feel they didn’t get any sweat for their money.”
There was plenty of sweating throughout the Week 1 games. The Broncos were on the verge of an upset after Marvin Mims Jr. muffed a punt against the Titans in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals found themselves in a one-score game vs. the Saints with less than three minutes left in regulation. The Bengals barely held on to defeat the Browns by one point. And the Cowboys had plenty of opportunities to steal the game in Philadelphia, losing by only four points.
As for the entries that were eliminated, about 200 of them got burned by the Patriots losing at home to the Raiders. What a strange Week 1. No major upsets and the Raiders have a look of a playoff contender.
Perhaps the remaining survivor contestants will again play it safe by picking the Ravens (-750), a double-digit favorite at home vs. the pesky Browns (+11.5). Some might even get bold and take a road team, like the Rams (-250), who are in Tennessee (+6) for Week 2.
“I think the Rams will be one of the top teams selected because of the Titans,” Palm says. “The Titans don’t have anybody that can catch the ball. I don’t know if that was all Cam Ward’s fault.”
Probably best to not get too cute again and avoid the Rams after their offense was shut down at home by the Texans last week. The Titans’ defense gave the Broncos plenty of fits in Denver. Forget being bold and side with an angry Baltimore team that blew a 15-point lead vs. Buffalo.
“This looks like a lay up spot with a double-digit point spread,” Palm says.
But avoid laying 11.5 points with the Ravens. Yes, upsets didn’t occur in Week 1, but a handful of dogs covered, including the Browns, whose defense didn’t allow Joe Burrow to establish a rhythm.
For my sake, hopefully more dogs cover and make the Circa contestants sweat in Week 2. What a horrendous performance by me. I’ll do better, but for now, here’s more valuable information from Palm ahead of this week’s games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 2
Palm is expecting the clash between the Falcons (+3.5) and Vikings (-205) to be this week’s Pros vs. Joe's matchup. The Falcons had a tough three-point loss vs. the Buccaneers, and the Vikings received a sensational second-half rally from second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy in the victory over the Bears.
“I think the public might be overreacting to the Vikings’ comeback win,” Palm says. “They’re getting -4.5 points. For the Falcons, that was a coin flip game.”
As of Wednesday, it was rare to find a spread bigger than four points, a strong sign that the sharps were all over the early line in favor of Atlanta.
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 2
Palm and the rest of the Vegas oddsmakers will probably be sweating about the Lions’ home matchup against the Bears.
Both teams lost in Week 1, but Palm predicts the money will be all over Detroit (-6) to bounce-back against its former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who made a few head-scratching late-game decisions in his Bears coaching debut.
“I think the Lions will probably be a liability for us,” Palm says. “That game is at 5.5 points [early Wednesday], so that’s got room to get bet up. People can lay 5.5, 6, 6.5 and maybe not stop until it gets to 7 points.
“The Bears didn’t do much offensively. I think people saw that this magic dust that Ben Johnson was supposed to have on Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense might not be there. And now, the Lions all of a sudden, this is a really important game for them. You don’t want to go 0–2 and possibly fall two games behind the Packers, who already hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.”
For the second consecutive week, the Cardinals (-7) could also be a liability for the sportsbooks, as they host the Panthers (+240), who looked terrible against the Jaguars last week. Arizona struggled in New Orleans, but held on to cover with the seven-point road victory.
Odds Movement NFL Week 2
Last week, the 49ers were laying six points for their road game against the Saints. But the line dropped to -4.5 points after the Monday morning news of Brock Purdy and George Kittle sustaining injuries during the win in Seattle.
After Kittle was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and Purdy was labeled “a long shot” for Sunday due to multiple injuries, the Circa now has San Francisco only laying three points in New Orleans.
As for another game that could see some line movement in the coming days, Palm said he’s surprised that the Chiefs were only getting spotted 1.5 points for their home game against the Eagles. The Chiefs were punched in the mouth by the Chargers last week in Brazil, they’re short-handed at wide receiver and now have to face the team that embarrassed them in the Super Bowl.
“I’m surprised it’s only 1.5,” Palm says. “The Eagles have the rest advantage [with the Thursday game] and were at home. K.C. was in Brazil. … I suspect it’ll be closer to 2.5 than 1.5 by kick off.”
Big Bets on the Raiders
In a rare instance, the sharps and the Raiders fans could be aligned in betting big on the Silver and Black.
The Vegas sportsbooks often see significant money support for the Raiders, but there could be more than usual after how well they played in New England for the debut of quarterback Geno Smith and coach Pete Carroll. This could also be a sharp play with the Raiders getting the hook at 3.5 points for a Monday night home matchup against a Chargers squad that traveled to Brazil in the season opener.
“We will see action on the Raiders,” Palm says. “There’s a lot of hope in the town right now. They look like a real team playing in New England.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 2 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Broncos (-1.5) at Colts
Don’t let an ugly Week 1 performance buck you off the Broncos’ hype train. Sure, they’re not legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but they’re probably a better team than what they showed at home vs. Tennessee.
I’m not high on the Colts. The Dolphins were just that bad in the season opener. But I’ll give credit to Daniel Jones for protecting the football and leaning on his playmakers during his Indy debut. This could certainly be a close one, but I can see Denver winning by at least a field goal.
Enticing Bet: Falcons (+3.5) at Vikings
I’m siding with the sharps here and looking to profit off the Week 1 overreactions. McCarthy showed plenty of toughness in Chicago, but he still has plenty to learn when it comes to reading defenses.
Falcons coach Raheem Morris received a stellar performance from his defense, which contained Baker Mayfield for long stretches last week.
Moneyline Dog: Saints (+142) vs. 49ers
I had this one when it was at +180 before 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan strongly suggested that Purdy likely won’t play this week. There’s not as much value anymore, but I’ll still take the home team here.
Spencer Rattler showed improvement and kept his team competitive against the Cardinals. Perhaps Rattler vs. Mac Jones turns into a fun shootout at the Superdome.
SuperDog: Jets (+6.5) vs. Bills
Welp, since I can’t fully give up on the dogs even after last week’s debacle. I decided to add this section for the weekly column. C’mon, I’m sure many of you enjoyed seeing the Browns cover the +5.5 vs. the Bengals.
Justin Fields had an impressive Jets debut and instantly turned that offense into a productive rushing attack. Fields also displayed chemistry with Garrett Wilson. Maybe Gang Green keeps it close vs. Josh Allen & Co.
Not So Risky: Bengals (-3.5) vs. Jaguars
Betting on the Bengals in September can be risky, but I’m not buying the Jaguars just because they beat the Panthers. It’s not easy to shut down Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in back-to-back weeks.
Stay Away: Eagles (-1.5) at Chiefs
It’s strange how we’re viewing the Chiefs as a wounded animal that now has to confront the big, bad wolf. I think Kansas City will show pride and be at its best for this Super Bowl rematch. But I would rather take the Chiefs with three points at home. That likely won’t happen, so I’m staying away.
Parlay: Titans (+5.5) vs. Rams, Buccaneers (+2.5) at Texans, Raiders (+3.5) vs. Chargers
Everyone wants to hit the lottery with their parlays. Westgate Superbook oddsmakers Arthur DiCesare showed me last week the amount of $1,000 parlays that come in hours before Sunday kick offs. Please give that a read. There was plenty of insight from DiCesare.
I’ll take a chance on the Titans’ tough defense vs. the Rams. I don’t feel good about betting against the Texans at home, but I’m high on the Mayfield–led Bucs. And I’ll join Raider Nation for the Monday night matchup.
Favorite Fave: Steelers (-3) vs. Seahawks
I liked what I saw from 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. I did not like what I saw from Sam Darnold away from coach Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson.
Best Over/Under Total: Lions-Bears (under 46.5, -115)
I might be late to the party after several unders hit last week. But the Bears’ defense was impressive and could have some success against the Lions. On the other side, the Bears’ offense struggled and could have trouble vs. Aidan Hutchinson & Co.
